S
SPECTRE
NTEWS — PREDICTION ENGINE v1.0
TOP SECRET // ORCON
4
Critical
6
Groups Monitored
37
TP-Rules Active
93%
F1-Score
83
Variables
--:--:-- UTC
// Monitored Groups
// NTEWS Methodology
Primary ModelRandom Forest
SecondarySVM + KNN
Training DataACLED 2011–2022
Horizon6 Months
TP-Rules37 Active
F1-Score93.1%
4
Critical Risk Groups
↑ 1 this month
37
TP-Rules Firing
West Africa — Sahel
93%
F1-Score Accuracy
6-month horizon
12yr
ACLED Training Data
2011–2022 events
JNIM
Sahel — Burkina Faso / Mali Border
91%
CRITICAL
ATTACK TYPE PROBABILITY
Security Force Targeting
91%
Civilian Mass Casualty
78%
Foreign Nat. Abduction
93%
IED / Infrastructure
65%
KEY TRIGGERING TP-RULES
UN asset freeze on 4 JNIM member entities — ACTIVE
Travel ban on Mali by 3 neighboring states
Leadership intact — no arrests or deaths 60d
No government raids on JNIM facilities 60d
FORECAST WINDOW Next 30 days
ISGS
Burkina Faso / Niger / Mali Tri-Border
87%
CRITICAL
ATTACK TYPE PROBABILITY
Civilian Mass Casualty
87%
Security Force Targeting
82%
Village Massacre
74%
Mine / IED
69%
KEY TRIGGERING TP-RULES
ISGS not in internal conflict — unified command
Government receiving international military aid
No security force sexual violence reports 30d
ISGS leaders declared caliphate — ideological escalation
FORECAST WINDOW Next 60 days
Al-Shabaab
Somalia — Horn of Africa
84%
CRITICAL
ATTACK TYPE PROBABILITY
SVBIED / Car Bomb
84%
Government Target
79%
Hotel / Civilian Target
71%
Regional Expansion
55%
KEY TRIGGERING TP-RULES
AMISOM troop reduction — strategic vacuum
Al-Shabaab leadership intact — Godane successors active
No ceasefire — combat posture maintained
Revenue streams intact — al-Zakat taxation active
FORECAST WINDOW Next 30 days
Boko Haram / ISWAP
Lake Chad Basin — NE Nigeria
78%
HIGH
ATTACK TYPE PROBABILITY
Abduction / Hostage
78%
Military Base Attack
72%
Village Raid
68%
Suicide Bombing
59%
KEY TRIGGERING TP-RULES
ISWAP/BH merger — unified command — leadership stable
Humanitarian corridor closures — population displacement
Nigeria military offensive — historical retaliation pattern
FORECAST WINDOW Next 45 days
Ansarul Islam
Northern Burkina Faso — Soum Province
71%
HIGH
ATTACK TYPE PROBABILITY
Security Force Attack
71%
Community Leader Target
65%
Road Ambush / IED
60%
KEY TRIGGERING TP-RULES
Collaboration with JNIM detected — joint operations
Burkina military operations — displacement trigger
Fulani youth recruitment rate elevated 30d
FORECAST WINDOW Next 60 days
AQIM Affiliates
Mauritania / Algeria / Mali
58%
ELEVATED
ATTACK TYPE PROBABILITY
Kidnap for Ransom
63%
Guerrilla Ambush
55%
Smuggling Route Attack
48%
KEY TRIGGERING TP-RULES
Mauritania border security degradation
AQIM leadership communications intercepted
Algeria counter-ops — historical displacement south
FORECAST WINDOW Next 90 days
Prediction Alerts
// Data Sources
ACLED DatabaseLIVE
UN Sanctions ListLIVE
SPECTRE RSSLIVE
Dark Web RadarLIVE
US State DeptLIVE
⚠ NTEWS
CRITICAL — JNIM — 91% security force attack probability — Burkina-Mali border — 30 day window
CRITICAL — ISGS — 87% mass civilian casualty probability — tri-border region — 60 days
CRITICAL — Al-Shabaab — 84% SVBIED probability — Mogadishu government quarter
HIGH — Boko Haram/ISWAP — 78% abduction probability — Lake Chad Basin — 45 days
NTEWS — Random Forest — 93.1% F1-score — 6-month horizon — ACLED 2011-2022 training
MODEL UPDATE — 37 TP-rules active — 83 variables monitored — West Africa Sahel focus
CRITICAL — JNIM — 91% security force attack probability — Burkina-Mali border — 30 day window
CRITICAL — ISGS — 87% mass civilian casualty probability — tri-border region — 60 days
CRITICAL — Al-Shabaab — 84% SVBIED probability — Mogadishu government quarter
HIGH — Boko Haram/ISWAP — 78% abduction probability — Lake Chad Basin — 45 days
NTEWS — Random Forest — 93.1% F1-score — 6-month horizon — ACLED 2011-2022 training
MODEL UPDATE — 37 TP-rules active — 83 variables monitored — West Africa Sahel focus